The number of irretrievably lost bitcoins has now reached 6 million, which leaves 13.3 million as coins that remain in circulation, Timothy Peterson of Cane Island Alternative Advisors has said. Peterson added that out of the 1.7 million bitcoins that will be mined in the next 100 years or more, one million coins will be lost in the same period.
One Million Lost Bitcoins
According to Timothy Peterson, an author and manager of Cane Island Alternative Advisors, the number of irretrievably lost bitcoins has now reached 6 million. In his latest tweet on the subject, Peterson asserts that from the estimated 19.3 million bitcoins that had been mined by March 25, 2023, only 13.3 million remain in circulation which is “probably all you will have access to in your lifetime.”
I estimate that, as of this week, 6 million of the 19.3 million #bitcoin mined have been irretrievably lost. (See related research at https://t.co/ULso76SXjD ) This means 13.3 million remain with only 1.7 million left to be mined over the next 100+ years. In that time, it's… pic.twitter.com/WpiSNT9TSF
— Timothy Peterson, CFA CAIA (@nsquaredcrypto) March 25, 2023
The author’s latest estimate of the number of bitcoins that will ever circulate appears to be in tandem with his 2020 prediction. As reported by Bitcoin.com News in Sept. 2020, Peterson claimed then that the ongoing loss of an estimated 1,500 BTC per day meant only fewer than 14 million coins will ever circulate. In their 2020 note, researchers at Cane Island also insisted that the widely used BTC capitalization is inaccurate because it includes coins that are irretrievably lost.
While some bitcoiners have either questioned or dismissed Peterson’s past claims including Cane Island’s April 16, 2020 research note, in his March 25 tweet the author appears to use the same findings to back his latest prediction. In the tweet, he also predicts a loss of one million BTC in the next 100+ years.
“This means 13.3 million remain with only 1.7 million left to be mined over the next 100+ years. In that time, it’s almost certain that another million will be lost, and old coins are being lost as new coins are being created. The 13 million circulating now is probably all you will have access to in your lifetime,” Peterson explained in the tweet.
#Bitcoin Active Supply through Time
In The Spectacular Journey of #Bitcoin series,
we today look at Active Supply through time
Has #BTC found its equilibrium?
Check my free, open site for #onchain analysis https://t.co/yVmCtJlihh
Data is gathered from my own bitcoin node. pic.twitter.com/RBeO8OgUEf
— The ₿itcoin Researcher (@ResearchBTCNow) October 26, 2022
However, in their response to Peterson’s latest tweet, a user going by the name of The Bitcoin Researcher insisted that the number of BTC in circulation is in fact 15.5 million. According to their tweet, The Bitcoin Researcher has based their findings on the assumption that coins which have not moved for the past seven years are lost.